Recent Situation Tension
As of June 2024, India-Pakistan relations remain tense, with several key issues contributing to the strained situation
1. Kashmir Dispute
The revocation of Article 370 (August 2019) by India, which stripped Jammu & Kashmir of its special status, remains a major point of contention.
Pakistan continues to raise the issue at international forums (UN, OIC), while India maintains that Kashmir is an internal matter.
Recent militant attacks in Jammu & Kashmir (e.g., Poonch, Rajouri) have heightened tensions, with India accusing Pakistan-backed groups (LeT, JeM) of involvement.
2. Cross-Border Ceasefire & Skirmishes
The 2021 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) has largely held, but sporadic violations and drone intrusions are reported.
India has accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, while Pakistan denies the claims.
3. Diplomatic Standoff
No high-level talks between the two countries since 2016 (after Uri attack & surgical strikes).
Trade remains suspended since 2019 (Pakistan downgraded ties after India’s Kashmir move).
Visa restrictions and limited diplomatic engagement persist.
4. Recent Developments (2024)
Pakistan’s Economic Crisis: With a new government in place (Shehbaz Sharif as PM), Pakistan is struggling with economic instability, reducing its ability to escalate tensions.
India’s Focus on China: India is more concerned about its border tensions with China (Ladakh standoff), which may limit major escalations with Pakistan.
Elections Impact: Modi’s re-election (2024) suggests continuity in India’s tough stance on Pakistan.
5. Risk of Escalation?
Low chance of full-scale war, but risks of:
Proxy militant attacks in Kashmir leading to limited Indian military responses (like 2019 Balakot airstrike).
Cyber warfare & propaganda battles.
- Diplomatic spats at UN, FATF, etc. Conclusion
While both countries avoid large-scale conflict due to nuclear deterrence, the underlying issues (Kashmir, terrorism, nationalism) keep tensions simmering. Any major militant attack in India before key political events could trigger a crisis. And both countries should compromise with each other